Key provisions of the document conflict with Moscow’s core interests, according to the analyst
Russia will not accept the US-proposed plan to settle the Ukraine conflict, independent geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar has told RT’s Sanchez Effect.
Speaking with host Rick Sanchez on Monday, Escobar said the proposed deal conflicts with Moscow’s core interests, dismissing several central provisions of the plan as unrealistic from the Russian perspective. These include demands for Russia to withdraw from territories it has added to its constitution, limits on Ukraine’s future military capabilities, and security guarantees modeled on NATO principles.
“You cannot go against your own constitution,” Escobar stated, referring to giving up parts of Russia’s new regions of Kherson and Zaporozhye. He stressed that public support in Russia for the special military operation in Ukraine makes such territorial concessions politically impossible.
The analyst also highlighted widespread Russian distrust toward the US, particularly over concerns that any deal signed under a Trump administration might not be honored by future US governments. “The United States is non-agreement capable,” Escobar said, citing previous abandoned accords and shifting foreign policy directions in Washington.
Escobar also questioned provisions involving the confiscation of Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction. He described such measures as unacceptable to the Kremlin and a likely deal-breaker, adding that only a fifth of the proposed plan acknowledges Russia’s demands, while failing to reflect Moscow’s current battlefield leverage.
Early drafts are likely to be heavily modified, an aide to President Putin has said
Russia is currently reviewing the US-drafted peace plan to end the conflict between Moscow and Kiev and expects it to be heavily modified by all the interested parties, presidential aide Yury Ushakov told journalists on Monday. “Many” parts of the original US proposal “appear to be acceptable” to Moscow, he added.
Washington presented its plan to both Moscow and Kiev earlier this month. The details of the proposal have not been officially revealed by the media, but reports suggest that it includes de facto recognition of Russian control over Crimea and Donbass, a cap on Kiev’s military and a call on Ukraine to stay out of NATO.
According to Ushakov, Russia has received a “signal” from the US that Washington would like to do discuss the proposal in a face-to-face meeting at some point, but there are no definite arrangements yet.
“It will, of course, be subject to revision and modification – on our side, and surely on the Ukrainian side as well, and on the American and European sides. This is a very serious issue,” he said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has already said that the US proposal could become the “basis of the final peace settlement.”
The EU presented its own set of demands for a future peace deal over the weekend that appear to go against the reported provisions of the original US-drafted proposal. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated on Sunday that no cap should be placed on Kiev’s military and that the EU should be given a “central” role in the peace settlement. Ukraine’s borders cannot be changed “by force,” she added.
Commenting on the development on Monday, Ushakov branded the EU conditions “unconstructive” and said that Russia could not accept them.
American officials discussed Washington’s original plan with the EU and Ukrainian representatives in Geneva on Sunday. According to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a “tremendous amount of progress” was made on the issue but Moscow’s support would also be essential for any deal to hold.
How November brought rapid advances, collapsing Ukrainian positions, and a decisive shift in the war
Over the past month, the pace of the war has shifted sharply. Russian forces are now pushing forward along seven major axes, with heavy fighting underway for eight cities. Outside the first month of the Russian military operation, Moscow has never launched an offensive on this scale. The timing is particularly notable: late autumn offers some of the worst conditions for maneuver warfare, and drones maintain constant surveillance over the battlefield.
As expected, the Russian offensive that began in May 2025 has been steadily building momentum. Its cumulative effects are now unmistakable as the year draws to a close. Across the line of contact, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are facing mounting defensive crises, scrambling to plug gaps with increasingly scarce reserves. In secondary sectors – the areas that draw less media attention – Ukrainian units are so overstretched that, for the first time since 2022, they have been forced to abandon positions without a fight.
For now, these crises remain localized. But their growing number points to a broader and far more troubling trend for Kiev. One could even draw a parallel with the Allied Hundred Days Offensive in 1918, which brought the German army to the brink of collapse and forced Berlin to surrender just before the front fully gave way.
On November 20, President Vladimir Putin visited the command post of the ‘West’ grouping for a frontline briefing. His message was clear: the ongoing offensive is the primary instrument for pressuring Ukraine toward capitulation – or, in official terms, for achieving the objectives of the Special Military Operation.
What follows is a breakdown of the key developments along the front over the past month, moving from north to south.
Kupiansk and the northern front
The Kupiansk sector is in Kharkov Region, with the city itself acting as a buffer shielding Kharkov – Ukraine’s second-largest city – from the east. Russian forces pulled out of Kupiansk in September-October 2022, and for nearly a year the area saw little heavy fighting. That changed last fall, once Russian units crossed the Oskol River and secured a foothold on its western bank.
Through the spring and summer, Russian troops encircled Kupiansk from the north, setting the stage for the battles that erupted this fall. In early November, Russian military officials announced they had taken the eastern part of the city. Still, the Yubileiny district – a cluster of Soviet-era apartment blocks – remained under Ukrainian control and functioned as a fortified stronghold for the AFU.
On Thursday, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov reported to Vladimir Putin that Kupiansk had been fully liberated, though he noted that isolated Ukrainian units were still being cleared out. Following our standard conservative approach to frontline reporting, we are not marking the city as fully taken yet and are waiting for visual confirmation.
Another important development in this sector was the liberation of the village of Dvurechanskoye by the ‘North’ grouping. This allowed their foothold to link up with the Oskol bridgehead held by the ‘West’ grouping.
Liman and Seversk
Russia lost Liman (in the Donetsk People’s Republic) during Ukraine’s 2022 counteroffensive. Without retaking the city, securing the northern bank of the Seversky Donets River – a key prerequisite for encircling the AFU’s major stronghold, the Slaviansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration – remains impossible.
After surrounding Liman from three sides in October, Russia’s ‘West’ grouping launched a direct assault on the city. With the Yampol railway station now under Russian control, Ukrainian forces have been left with a single narrow route for resupply. Given the pace of Russia’s advance inside Liman, further gains in the coming month look likely.
South of the Seversky Donets, the AFU’s defenses in Severodonetsk continue to erode. For three years, the city has served as a key Ukrainian stronghold in the region. Russia’s ‘South’ grouping has fully liberated Zvanovka – a railway station on Seversk’s southern edge – and is now pushing into the city itself, moving steadily toward the center.
West of Seversk, Russian troops crossed the Seversky Donets and seized two settlements on the southern bank – a milestone that seemed out of reach not long ago. The breakthrough suggests that Ukrainian forces in this sector are nearing the point of critical exhaustion.
Konstantinovka
The situation looks somewhat better for Ukrainian forces in Konstantinovka, a major city that acts as the southeastern gateway to Slaviansk and Kramatorsk. Here, the AFU have concentrated their second-largest grouping after Pokrovsk (discussed below) and, until recently, managed to hold their defensive line.
That changed after Russian troops captured the settlement of Ivanopolye on November 21, breaking through Konstantinovka’s outer defenses. Russia’s ‘South’ grouping has since begun fighting inside the city itself. During a briefing with President Putin, the commander of the army group said Konstantinovka could be fully taken by mid-December. The president urged caution, advising against rushing the operation.
The major battle of 2025 – the fight for Pokrovsk (known in Russia as Krasnoarmeysk) – was examined in detail in our previous report. To recap: Pokrovsk, Mirnograd, and Rodninskoye form the second-largest urban cluster still held by the AFU. With no major settlements for nearly 100 kilometers to the west, the fall of Pokrovsk risks triggering a domino effect across the central front.
By October, between 2,000 and 5,000 Ukrainian troops had been encircled in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd (Dimitrov). During the first half of November, the AFU attempted to break the siege through Rodninskoye, but each attempt collapsed. By November 15, Pokrovsk had been fully taken, and Rodninskoye partially taken – effectively closing the ring around Mirnograd.
The “cauldron” now appears on the verge of splitting in two. Ukrainian troops in the southern pocket are trying to retreat north, but with most buildings reduced to rubble and temperatures dropping below freezing, there is virtually no shelter left. The battle for Pokrovsk is entering its final phase, raising the question of how effectively Ukrainian forces can build a new defensive line west of the city.
This sector has drawn the least media attention – it has no major cities, no high-profile landmarks, and, at least on the surface, no dramatic shifts. Still, its open steppe terrain makes sustained defense extremely difficult.
Between November 14 and 15, Russian forces seized the strategically important settlement of Novopavlovka. Troops from the ‘Center’ grouping quickly threw up pontoon bridges over a destroyed crossing north of Dachnoye and took the settlement with minimal resistance. Novopavlovka had a pre-war population of roughly 3,500 people – for comparison, Sudzha in Kursk region had about 4,900 – and the Russian advance pushed as far as eight kilometers in a single push, crossing two defensive lines and a major water barrier. Taken together, these developments point to a serious crisis for Ukrainian forces in this area.
The situation is even more alarming on the Gulaipole front. Since early November, Russia’s ‘East’ grouping has advanced up to 15 kilometers along a 30-kilometer stretch, capturing a dozen settlements and more than 260 square kilometers of territory. Supply routes to the city of Gulaipole have been cut, and the front line is now pressing up against the city itself; urban fighting may begin as early as December. Ukrainian units are offering almost no sustained resistance, suggesting that virtually all reserves have been redirected toward Pokrovsk.
The sector where the ‘Dnepr’ grouping operates has been relatively quiet for some time. During Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive, Orekhov served as a rear headquarters and a key logistical hub for the AFU; in 2023, some of the heaviest fighting unfolded in and around the city.
Over the past month, Russian forces have tightened the noose around Orekhov from three sides, taking the settlement of Malaya Tokmachka, essentially a suburb of the city. Even so, Orekhov is reinforced by strong defensive positions, meaning a rapid breakthrough is unlikely unless the entire sector collapses.
Along the Dnieper River, Russian troops continue their slow, methodical advance. Heavy fighting is underway for the strategically important town of Stepnogorsk, and to its north, there are no significant Ukrainian fortifications for roughly 10 kilometers. This axis is the closest approach to Zaporozhye, a major frontline city with a pre-war population of around 750,000. In an effort to shield the city, a substantial number of Ukrainian troops remain pinned down in this area.
Taken together, the past month marks a turning point on the battlefield. The Russian advance is no longer a series of isolated breakthroughs but a coordinated campaign stretching from the forests of Kharkov region to the banks of the Dnieper. The AFU, strained by chronic manpower shortages and the collapse of several defensive lines, is increasingly being forced into reactive, piecemeal responses rather than strategic planning.
The overall trajectory is clear: each week brings new evidence that Kiev’s ability to sustain large-scale defense is eroding, while Russia’s forces – larger, better supplied, and operating under unified command – continue to push forward.
In this environment, political decisions in Kiev and the West may soon matter as much as military ones. As Russia consolidates its gains and expands pressure along the entire line of contact, the question is shifting from whether Moscow can maintain the initiative to how far it intends to carry this offensive.
What began as a gradual buildup in the spring has now become a sustained, multi-directional campaign. If current trends continue, the winter and early spring of 2026 may bring even more consequential shifts on the battlefield – and, potentially, in the broader political landscape of the conflict.
The two presidents have discussed a US-drafted peace proposal in a phone conversation, according to Moscow
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have agreed to intensify contacts between the two countries’ diplomats on settling the Ukraine conflict, the Kremlin said on Monday following a phone conversation between the two leaders.
Putin and Erdogan discussed a recently leaked US-drafted proposal on resolving the ongoing hostilities. Washington presented the plan to both Moscow and Kiev earlier this month. The details were not officially made public, but media reports indicated that it included de facto recognition of Crimea and Donbass as Russian, as well as a cap of 600,000 personnel on the Ukrainian military and a requirement for Kiev to stay out of NATO.
Putin has confirmed that Moscow received the plan but said it has yet to be discussed “in detail.” Speaking to Erdogan on Monday, the Russian president said the proposals were consistent with the understandings reached during the Alaska summit in August, and that the initiative could serve as the basis for a potential peace agreement.
Moscow is interested in resolving the Ukraine conflict through political and diplomatic means, the Russian president stated.
Erdogan reaffirmed Ankara’s readiness to help Russia and Ukraine reach a “just and lasting peace.”
The Turkish city of Istanbul served as a venue for three rounds of talks between Moscow and Kiev earlier this year, yielding some progress on humanitarian issues, including POW exchanges. Putin also said in September that Turkish mediation in the Ukraine conflict continues to be valued and would be desirable in the future.
The phone call occurred while US officials were discussing Washington’s peace proposals with the EU and Ukrainian representatives in Geneva. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said afterward that a “tremendous amount of progress” had been made on the plan but “there is still some work to be done.”
The two presidents have discussed a US-drafted peace proposal in a phone conversation, according to Moscow
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, have agreed to intensify contacts between the two countries’ diplomats on settling the Ukraine conflict, the Kremlin said on Monday following a phone conversation between the two leaders.
Putin and Erdogan discussed a recently leaked US-drafted proposal on resolving the ongoing hostilities. Washington presented the plan to both Moscow and Kiev earlier this month. The details were not officially made public, but media reports indicated that it included de facto recognition of Crimea and Donbass as Russian, as well as a cap of 600,000 personnel on the Ukrainian military and a requirement for Kiev to stay out of NATO.
Putin has confirmed that Moscow received the plan but said it has yet to be discussed “in detail.” Speaking to Erdogan on Monday, the Russian president said the proposals were consistent with the understandings reached during the Alaska summit in August, and that the initiative could serve as the basis for a potential peace agreement.
Moscow is interested in resolving the Ukraine conflict through political and diplomatic means, the Russian president stated.
Erdogan reaffirmed Ankara’s readiness to help Russia and Ukraine reach a “just and lasting peace.”
The Turkish city of Istanbul served as a venue for three rounds of talks between Moscow and Kiev earlier this year, yielding some progress on humanitarian issues, including POW exchanges. Putin also said in September that Turkish mediation in the Ukraine conflict continues to be valued and would be desirable in the future.
The phone call occurred while US officials were discussing Washington’s peace proposals with the EU and Ukrainian representatives in Geneva. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said afterward that a “tremendous amount of progress” had been made on the plan but “there is still some work to be done.”
The attacks come amid Kiev’s mounting battlefield setbacks and pressure by the US to agree to peace terms, reportedly including territorial concessions
At least ten Ukrainian long-range drones were intercepted on Monday as they headed toward Moscow, the Russian capital’s Mayor Sergey Sobyanin has announced. No casualties or damage were reported.
Russia’s Defense Ministry had stated earlier that ten Ukrainian drones had been downed between 8am and 2pm Moscow time, including two believed to be targeting the capital.
Overnight, Russian air defenses intercepted 93 Ukrainian unmanned aircraft over various regions of Russia as well as the Black and Azov seas, according to the military.
The attempted strikes come as Ukrainian forces face mounting battlefield setbacks. On Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry said its troops had liberated two neighborhoods in the city of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) in the Donetsk People’s Republic over the preceding 24 hours.
The Ukrainian government is also under pressure amid a major corruption scandal involving close associates of Vladimir Zelensky, who allegedly ran a large-scale kickback operation in the energy sector using foreign funds.
Compounding the pressure, the US has presented Kiev with peace plan proposal reportedly requiring territorial concessions to Russia. Ukraine’s European backers have taken issue with the terms of the deal, calling for substantial revisions.
US and Ukrainian officials held discussions on the proposed deal in Geneva over the weekend, with the Trump administration reportedly arguing that Kiev risks worse terms in the future if it refuses to compromise.
Moscow has distanced itself from the debate over the leaked drafts. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Russia only comments on proposals received through official diplomatic channels and will not react to documents circulated in the media.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously stated that his country has the upper hand on the battlefield and will achieve its strategic aims regardless of whether Ukraine accepts US-brokered mediation.
The attacks come amid Kiev’s mounting battlefield setbacks and pressure by the US to agree to peace terms, reportedly including territorial concessions
At least ten Ukrainian long-range drones were intercepted on Monday as they headed toward Moscow, the Russian capital’s Mayor Sergey Sobyanin has announced. No casualties or damage were reported.
Russia’s Defense Ministry had stated earlier that ten Ukrainian drones had been downed between 8am and 2pm Moscow time, including two believed to be targeting the capital.
Overnight, Russian air defenses intercepted 93 Ukrainian unmanned aircraft over various regions of Russia as well as the Black and Azov seas, according to the military.
The attempted strikes come as Ukrainian forces face mounting battlefield setbacks. On Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry said its troops had liberated two neighborhoods in the city of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) in the Donetsk People’s Republic over the preceding 24 hours.
The Ukrainian government is also under pressure amid a major corruption scandal involving close associates of Vladimir Zelensky, who allegedly ran a large-scale kickback operation in the energy sector using foreign funds.
Compounding the pressure, the US has presented Kiev with peace plan proposal reportedly requiring territorial concessions to Russia. Ukraine’s European backers have taken issue with the terms of the deal, calling for substantial revisions.
US and Ukrainian officials held discussions on the proposed deal in Geneva over the weekend, with the Trump administration reportedly arguing that Kiev risks worse terms in the future if it refuses to compromise.
Moscow has distanced itself from the debate over the leaked drafts. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that Russia only comments on proposals received through official diplomatic channels and will not react to documents circulated in the media.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously stated that his country has the upper hand on the battlefield and will achieve its strategic aims regardless of whether Ukraine accepts US-brokered mediation.
The move reflects an effort to pursue agreements reached between Lukashenko and Trump, Minsk has said
Minsk has released 31 Ukrainian citizens from detention in a “goodwill gesture” linked to ongoing engagement efforts between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and his US counterpart, Donald Trump.
In a statement on Saturday, Lukashenko’s presidential press secretary Natalia Eismont announced that he had pardoned Ukrainians who had been convicted of criminal offenses in Belarus at the request of Kiev and in order to further the agreements he had reached with Trump.
She described the move as a “gesture of goodwill” guided by humanitarian principles, saying it “aims to create the conditions for resolving the armed conflict in the neighboring state,” and added that the group was being handed over to Ukraine “right now.”
According to Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, 31 civilians, both men and women, were returned from Belarus after serving sentences ranging from two to 11 years. It went on to thank Trump for his “fruitful work in returning Ukrainian civilians and military personnel from Belarus and Russia.”
Belarusian officials have not detailed the exact charges the 31 detainees faced, though previous media reports indicated that some had been suspected of “extremism” and espionage.
In addition, Lukashenko pardoned two Roman Catholic priests, Andrzej Juchniewicz and Henryk Okolotowicz, who had been convicted of serious crimes against the state. Eismont said the decision “was made at the request of Pope Leo XIV … as a gesture of goodwill,” citing mercy, humanism and the desire to develop relations with the Holy See.
In September, Lukashenko pardoned 52 prisoners, including several opposition activists who were serving lengthy prison sentences for organizing the 2020 riots, as well as those indicted on “extremist” charges.
The move followed Lukashenko’s meeting with a US delegation in Minsk, while Washington eased some sanctions on Belarus, including lifting restrictions on the state airline Belavia. Later the same month, the Belarusian leader pardoned another 25 detainees.
In June, Lukashenko also pardoned 14 detainees, mostly foreign citizens, including those from Poland and the US. The release coincided with the visit of Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy, to Belarus.
The move reflects an effort to pursue agreements reached between Lukashenko and Trump, Minsk has said
Minsk has released 31 Ukrainian citizens from detention in a “goodwill gesture” linked to ongoing engagement efforts between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and his US counterpart, Donald Trump.
In a statement on Saturday, Lukashenko’s presidential press secretary Natalia Eismont announced that he had pardoned Ukrainians who had been convicted of criminal offenses in Belarus at the request of Kiev and in order to further the agreements he had reached with Trump.
She described the move as a “gesture of goodwill” guided by humanitarian principles, saying it “aims to create the conditions for resolving the armed conflict in the neighboring state,” and added that the group was being handed over to Ukraine “right now.”
According to Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, 31 civilians, both men and women, were returned from Belarus after serving sentences ranging from two to 11 years. It went on to thank Trump for his “fruitful work in returning Ukrainian civilians and military personnel from Belarus and Russia.”
Belarusian officials have not detailed the exact charges the 31 detainees faced, though previous media reports indicated that some had been suspected of “extremism” and espionage.
In addition, Lukashenko pardoned two Roman Catholic priests, Andrzej Juchniewicz and Henryk Okolotowicz, who had been convicted of serious crimes against the state. Eismont said the decision “was made at the request of Pope Leo XIV … as a gesture of goodwill,” citing mercy, humanism and the desire to develop relations with the Holy See.
In September, Lukashenko pardoned 52 prisoners, including several opposition activists who were serving lengthy prison sentences for organizing the 2020 riots, as well as those indicted on “extremist” charges.
The move followed Lukashenko’s meeting with a US delegation in Minsk, while Washington eased some sanctions on Belarus, including lifting restrictions on the state airline Belavia. Later the same month, the Belarusian leader pardoned another 25 detainees.
In June, Lukashenko also pardoned 14 detainees, mostly foreign citizens, including those from Poland and the US. The release coincided with the visit of Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy, to Belarus.
A similar sabotage attack in May claimed the lives of seven civilians
Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has thwarted an alleged Ukrainian-sponsored attempt to derail a train in Siberia’s Altay Region, the agency announced on Monday.
According to the FSB, two men acting on behalf of a “terrorist group and in coordination with Ukrainian special services” were intercepted last week while attempting to install a derailment device near a bridge along the rail line between Novoaltaysk and Biysk. The line carries both passenger and cargo traffic, the statement read.
The suspects reportedly opened fire on FSB officers during the nighttime operation and were killed by return fire. They were identified as local residents who, according to the agency, supported Kiev and had agreed to carry out an attack in exchange for money.
Russian officials have accused Ukraine of conducting numerous sabotage operations targeting railroad infrastructure. In May, a passenger train was derailed in Bryansk Region after an explosion on a bridge, killing seven civilians. Investigators said identical foreign-made explosives were used in several coordinated attacks linked to Ukrainian intelligence.
Moscow has warned that Kiev is increasingly turning to terrorism as its military position worsens on the battlefield. The Ukrainian government is also under intense political pressure at home over a sweeping corruption scandal and from abroad, over a US-backed peace proposal that reportedly requires major concessions from Kiev while offering Vladimir Zelensky and his inner circle immunity from prosecution.
